SIGM VRGY PRGO UTHR

A few stocks I am interested in or have got in during weekness are PRGO UTHR. VRGY might turn out good.



Actually here is a list of resilient stocks from Stockbee, should provide good ideas when the market turns back up. I am not yet able to trust the action in the market, so I am doing more of short term trading for the time being.



http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/11/75-resilient-stocks.html



I have owned SIGM from last earnings season, and will add more when the post earnings bull flag forms. I see lot of upside till next earnings season. Stockdoctor is also very excited about it.



Cheers!
Lazy

Roller coaster Ride...

The Roller coaster ride continues, nothing much to report, watching from the sidelines. I have closed most of my positions at different times during last week, should have done earlier, being in training for the whole week did not help. Another foolishness on my part that killed me further was that I did not have stop loss orders on 3 of my open positions. On further research I found the stop loss orders had expired and I never put them back! So much for monitoring my positions every night!!

My current open positions are only small positions in old ones which are way up from where I had bought last year.

SIRF - Sirf Technologies Holdings Inc.

Another Earnings play, SIRF - Sirf Technologies Holdings Inc. Big quarter and is holding up strongly in this screwed up market, got in today.

Last couple of days I have not been able to follow the markets regularly. Other good earnings plays to keep an eye would be UTHR, SYNA, HMSY, MA, MSTR, HOS etc.

Will be in a training whole of next week, so might be away from the blog too.

Cheers!
Lazy

Solitary Trader

I found about Solitary Trader from this post of Stockbee:

http://stockbee.blogspot.com/2007/10/trading-earnings.html

Solitary Trader's earnings trading method made lot of sense. Some of my EPS Momo buys are on earnings announcement day or post earnings bull flag buy. Hence I plan to follow solitary trader blog regularly and also learn the particular trading style better. I have included the blog in my list of blogs. Solitary trader was not blogging for a while, but now I see there have been regular posts.

Here is the link: http://solitarytrader.blogspot.com/

If nothing else, check out his log cabin office, really cool!

Cheers!
Lazy

SWIR - Sierra Wireless Inc.

Today I picked up some shares in SWIR - Sierra Wireless Inc. They reported a big quarter, and future looks promising.

I know, putting my money in two similar companies (couple of days back I got into NVTL). Actually, NVTL got a boost today from SWIR results! NVTL reports early Nov.

But the wireless field is hot so I will monitor which one does better and move my money into the stronger of the two.

Still ruing my decision to have put such an aggressive stop in SGR, it has moved up fast and left me behind, though I will keep an eye. But on the other hand, MOS has been fabulous.

Cheers!
Lazy.

NVTL - Novatel Wireless Inc.

Today NVTL dived down on news that QCOM plans to sell a similar product, but I feel near term the stock should do okay, so bought some @21. Lets see how that pans out.

Cramer touted SGR and it popped up, I am still interested in that stock.

Keeping an eye on CRNT and SILC.

Cheers!

Lazy

Tough Day!

On days like this, I really miss my savings account :)

Was busy all day, missed the action in CRNT and LDK. Will keep an eye on CRNT. AAPL should lead the way tomorrow. My holding in SNCR got a boost due to AAPL, so indirectly I played AAPL. Something wrong with SILC, got kicked out from my remaining shares. Also, got kicked out of GMKT, I like that company, will try to get back in!

I keep missing some of the good moves in my core watchlist like the ones we saw today or over the past few days - CRNT, BCSI, MTL, JASO, CDS etc. So, here are some more that I am keeping an eye so, that if something interesting happens someone can take some action - QMAR, FSLR, GBT, SVA, WYNN, STAR, HMSY, SYNA, ULBI etc along with the ones mentioned yesterday - GSB PTT CY CKSW

ACO keeps pushing higher, better keep an eye!

Cheers!
Lazy

GSB - Globalscape Inc.

Ok here is a new one I came across recently - Globalscape Inc. (GSB). Its a growth story in the making, and recently market has discovered/accepted the fact (reflected in the share price appreciation). Revenue has been growing steadily for some quarters now, and earnings is catching up! As you know, I do not delve too much into the future assumptions - like prospects, DCF etc etc, but I will just give the current growth and financial numbers in my spreadsheet image. In the current market weakness, it is holding up quite well, so any dips might be a good buying opportunity. I do not like the cash situation, additionally, it has a very low float and is low priced, so quite speculative.


(Click on the image to view it bigger)

Others I am keeping an eye on are CY, CKSW and PTT. Picked up some ANTP on Friday.


Cheers!
Lazy

Busy most of the Week...

I am in training from Monday-Thursday. No, it is not one of those investment trainings. Its one of my day job related training, a Project Management Course called Risk Management. Hopefully I can use some of the concepts in my trading too :))

So, I will be away from the markets and maybe from this blog too for sometime.

Missed some of the earnings related action today. SGR moved back up. ANTP EDU STRN made good moves, Hopefully they will still provide good entry later this week.

Happy Trading!

Cheers!
Lazy.

A Funny story and smallcaps.us made me money!

I think everyone has a hidden trait in them which draws them to cheap stocks, the ones below $5 with the hope that one of these little companies will make it big and fly to $20-$30 and make them tons of money.

Well atleast I am one of those guys! Yeah I know, I am a cheapo!

Lot of you might be knowing FRPT (Force Protection Inc.). It was one of those EPS momentum based big movers last year. It moved from around $3 to $30.

Well when the first news came out that they had received their first order from US Army sometime back in 2003, it was an OTCBB stock trading around 40 cents. I saw the news and I bought it right away, hoping to make tons of money! It went down to 20 cents (due to heavy dilution) and kept going down, and I held on. Finally, it reverse split and the price became $4, it kept falling again, it fell all the way to 69 cents around December 2005. My position in that stock was worthless and I sold it in December 2005 for tax purposes.

If you look at the 3 year chart of FRPT, you will certainly call me the biggest loser on earth!!! Just when I should have bought loads of FRPT, I sold it instead and never looked back. It first moved from OTCBB to AMEX and then to NASDAQ. In the process it shot to $30, as I had predicted when I had bought the stock in the first place. Well so much for timing and patience.

I hope you too found my story funny!

Anyway, so I have this thing for cheap small/micro cap stocks. That was the reason I signed up at http://www.smallcaps.us/. They are free, independent and unbiased, so I usually just follow their picks, some of them do quite well. One company had caught my eye, Hemispherx BioPharma Inc - HEB

smallcaps.us kept saying this is one of the most undervalued micro cap stocks. Somehow I took the chance and bought first at around 1.45 and then around 1.25 and held on. Today its high was 2.02, I sold some at 1.98. Hope to see it continue upwards. Anyways, these folks made me money, and a mention and thanks was on the cards!

Cheers!
Lazy

Ugly Day - Oct 11, 2007 and PRXI

Before the fall I had sold half my position in LDK at 50.50 (another preset limit sell order). So, that turned out to be a good move. And I also opened a small position in PRXI in the morning when it looked like it wouldn't fall any further. It showed strength later, so that's good.

It would be prudent to be defensive tomorrow, after the sudden nose dive we saw today. I had last checked my portfolio before heading out for lunch around 12:30pm, my whole portfolio was up 2.5%. Next I checked around 2:45pm it was down 3%!!! I had been kicked out of SGR (this one moves downwards faster than the market), bought some more UVE without any of my knowledge!

That's the price you pay for having highly volatile low float stocks and also trying to maintain a portfolio in auto mode - aka - stop loss orders and preset limit buy orders at prices much below the current market prices.

Anyway not much damage done on the whole, provided market follows a few range days and does not nose dive further. Pundits were advising to be cautious after such a huge rally past few weeks, but today's action was quick.

Cheers!
Lazy

SGR - Shaw Group

Got into SGR after they reported a terrific qtr. I had a low limit order and a sudden dip mid morning filled me. LDK, VMW, MOS made good moves. Otherwise a quiet day, mostly away from my computer.

ARTW had a great qtr, and the stock shot up like an arrow, so I will wait for a dip before considering.

Was watching PRXI after hours, the numbers looked good to me but it seems they gave a -ve surprise by a penny so I will stay away for the moment. VOXX might be interesting tomorrow.

Cheers
Lazy

STV, VMW, LDK Solar and MOS - Mosaic Co.

Ok yesterday I was half kidding, when I said, by the time I am ready to buy STV it would have alreay shot to 60! I didn't mean in ONE DAY! That's what it almost did today. Today's high is 55.31. Holy Cow!

LDK - LDK Solar Co. Ltd. is very risky, but I got in for a quick play today, not sure if it will work out as I wish! Else I will get out quickly.

Ok, this one is more like my type of stock, or rather this blog type of stock. Its Mosaic Co. - MOS. Maybe you can call this one as a blog pick.

MOS is another potash play, if you know POT you will surely like MOS. Well today they reported steller earnings. EPS up 180% and revenue up 55.5% and it has been showing big numbers for couple of quarters now. I did not waste time getting in as soon as I saw the announcement!

Before I forget, go VMW!

Cheers
Lazy!

STV - China Digital TV Holding

No! That's not my pick, though at first glance the numbers look quite good!

But, I am just amazed how this Chinese Tsunami has taken the market by storm. This one started trading yesterday and opened today around 30 and shot up to 40! Wow!

Will keep an eye though, once the IPO volatility settles, might give it another look. But by that time it might shoot to 60, who knows about these guys!

On the other front, not much to report. Saw how CRNT is being butchered by the analysts.

I am keeping an eye on NVTL - Novatel Wireless, had good news and an upgrade today. This one is also one of my watchlist stocks.

Cheers!
Lazy

Watchlist and Research

As I had mentioned earlier, I create my watchlist from various sources:

1. MSN screening - I screen for stocks with qtr over qtr EPS growth rates of atleast 100 and revenue growth rates of atleast 30 (I keep playing with these numbers to get potential candidates). Then I also put in a criteria for price appreciation. This gives me about 100 stocks. I am already familiar with a lot of them , its the new ones that pop up once in a while. I then do further research on them. Post earnings season, new candidates keep popping up.

2. Other Sources - Daily news, other blogs, Most Price % Change list. Here are some links:
http://stage.theflyonthewall.com/entry.php
http://www.marketwatch.com/search/?doctype=806
http://finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=us

When I find a potential candidate I will run it against my own home grown analysis system. It might sound very sophisticated, but what it does is scrap data from freely available information on the web and crunches some numbers and statistics. But it is fully automated and it takes maybe 20 sec for a stock. I provide a small but very relevant portion of that output in excel format along with my picks that I post on my blog.

Things I look at are explosive eps and revenue growth rates (highest priority), Low float, ROE, ROA, ROIC, Profit Margins, FCF/Equity, Insider Transactions, level of Debt, Cash situation, Share Buyback, small dividends maybe.

When I say freely available sources, these are mostly pages from Yahoo Finance, MSN Money and Google Finance. One very important and very visual page from MSN money even Stockbee stresses, is this one:

This one is for UVE:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=uve

Looking at the bar graphs on the page itself gives you an idea that this one looks promising (though I do not visit this page, my software grabs data from here)

One look at this one, and you can tell, why I will avoid CHTR:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=chtr

Hope this helps, send me emails/comments with your questions, suggestions, feedback, criticism. I appreciate it!

Cheers!
Lazy

CPRT - Copart Inc.

CPRT - Copart Inc. is not from my core watchlist. Sometime back I got a big discount email from Motley Fool Stock Advisor, I subscribed just for the heck of it. I load their picks into a watchlist and keep an eye. (Anyone subscribing to their Hidden Gems Service, please send me an email). It seems CRNT was a hidden gems pick, that gets me interested.

As it is not my core holding, I was not sure if I should post it here, but then thought otherwise.

Following their earnings announcement, CPRT made a big move, so I was keeping an eye. It eventually formed a nice bull flag. Though it is a slow grower by my standards, revenues have increased substantially, by about 15M, due to accusations in UK, EPS went up 20%, they have increased their share buy back program and generate hordes of free cash flow.

So, I started a position in CPRT as it broke the bull flag trend line. Hope to see it continue its move up.

Cheers!
Lazy

DSX - Diana Shipping Inc

Alas! I could claim DSX is my pick. Not really! It was picked by StockDoctor couple of days back. This company keeps appearing in my scans and I like it, another positive being, it is in one of the hottest sectors - dry bulk shippers. Just look at DRYS and EXM, you will get the idea. Might get into it soon. And with a name like "Diana", hard to resist! Don't you agree? :)

Wow! Just noticed now, Stock Doctor has added my blog to his blogroll. Thanks Stock Doctor, really appreciate it.

Before I forget, I was kicked out of my position in CRNT. Will stay away from it for a while! Let it heal and get this dilution business out of the way.

RIMM did a fantastic move today, it is one of my watchlist stocks, had considered buying it post-split when it was lingering around 80, never got to actually hitting the buy button!

UVE is in a terrific uptrend, I plan to add to my position on weakness (or strength).

I will do a post on my views on buying on weakness or strength!

Cheers!
Lazy

What difference a day can make....

Though not as if my portfolio lost tons, but much different from yesterday!

CRNT killed me, I am guessing tomorrow it will hit my stop :(

Rest of the stocks were okay, UVE and GMKT were up. Today was mostly away from my computer so never got a chance to follow the Chinese stocks, which never seem to quit! Oh well!

Cheers!
Lazy

Best Day! and Secondary Offering Dip Buying

Today was the best day in my trading history, markets were flat but my portfolio went up as much in a day that I do not see in most months!

UVE , CRNT , CHNR (only part of the move), GMKT (one of my holdings from pre-correction), VMW .....all made big moves!

I took a technical trade in CHNR, so sold it quite early but still did very good :)

I do not know what is going on with UVE , I had mentioned it few days back, that this one has potential, did not realise the move would be so fast!

Also yesterday, I got into one of my technical candidates that I post in my technical blog. The chart looked very promising. It is XOMA, that too made a big move today.

Ok, remind me something. I have to add "Secondary Offering Dip Buy" as one of my buying strategies, used that today to add to my position in CRNT. Whenever a company announces a secondary offering, its stock price dips, but if it is a momentum stock, it does not take even a few hours to recover from the negative news. Recent examples would be JASO and SIGM, and also saw the strategy in this article

Cheers!
Lazy

CRNT

I opened a position in CRNT today, will add more. Looks like IBD wrote about it, so the huge interest. Good day on the whole.

Someone left a comment in my blog, thanks!

They wanted to know how do I build my watchlist. I find some potential stocks through screening (MSN screener), some from news or other blogs. Basically what I am looking in a stock is that it has started upward momentum and has shown explosive earnings and revenue growth atleast in the last couple of quarters if not more!

I then run them through my home grown (proprietary :) ) analysis system to decide if they are worth pursuing!

Cheers!
Lazy